Groundbreaking Ceremony

With great excitement, we celebrated the ground-breaking on the e-commerce centre in Roosendaal, this is the first DCAM development in the Netherlands. The project is progressing smoothly and running to schedule. This new 58,000 m² DC is located in business park Borchwerf II and will be leased to Lidl for their e-Commerce logistics activities. The warehouse will become operational in Spring 2018.

Symbolische eerste kolom e-commerce centre Roosendaal geplaatst Op feestelijke wijze is de spreekwoordelijke eerste kolom geplaatst voor de bouw van het e-commerce distributiecentrum in Roosendaal, het eerste project in Nederland waar DCAM optreedt als ontwikkelaar. De werkzaamheden verlopen vlot en volgens schema. Dit nieuwe 58.000 m² tellend logistiek centrum is gelegen op het bedrijventerrein Borchwerf II en zal verhuurd worden aan LidL die er de logistieke activiteiten van hun e-commerce afdeling zal onderbrengen. De vestiging zal in het voorjaar van 2018 in gebruik worden genomen.


The European Logistics Market

Demand for logistics assets to double by 2025 as e-commerce grows to make up 20% of retail activity from the current 9%.   Logistics has become the fastest-growing sector in real estate across Europe, and is perceived as the least politically sensitive asset class.

 


The extra mile: The logistics sector has come a long way from warehousing and distribution

The extra mile: The logistics sector has come a long way from warehousing and distribution

You know what they say about property investment; “location, location, location.” Well, here’s another mantra with an l-word; “logistics, logistics, logistics.” There is seemingly no end to investor interest in the real estate facilities needed for the efficient and time-sensitive storage and movement of goods between source and end-user and there are good reasons for that.

A lot of it has to do with e-commerce. Penetration rates for online retailing across Europe vary between market, depending on country, computer usage and culture, and a common factor is the requirement for state-of-the-art storage and distribution facilities and systems that are able to handle the flow of product from factory or field to retailer, and from retailer to customer and back. But the further common factor that excites most is that those online penetration rates are still rising and will continue to rise across a broader range of products — this is not a static market but almost a real estate investor’s dream come true. “Logistics is moving from being an ugly duckling to a beautiful swan,” says Dirk Sosef, vice president of research and strategy at Prologis.

“Logistics hasn’t always been so popular,” points out Phil Redding, CIO of UK-REIT SEGRO Plc. “We have been in this sector for nearly 100 years, so it is slightly surprising to us that it hasn’t been more popular. An easy way to see how big e-commerce or online retailing is in a country is to count how many Amazon sheds there are,” he adds. (Amazon shares, listed at $18 in May 1997, recently hit $1,000, a 55-times increase over 20 years.)

Personal connections 

“Logistics is more popular than ever,” says Rémy Vertupier, fund manager of AEW’s €1.7 billion LOGISTIS Fund, “because of the highly-positive supply/demand dynamics of the sector. Structural changes are having a major impact on supply-chain management around the globe and we can be reasonably very positive for the future of logistics as an asset class.

“There is also a ‘trend’ effect,” Vertupier continues. “Investment style can be affected by trends and the trend here is e-commerce. E-commerce gives every individual a personal connection with logistics. When you look at the portfolios of the large investors, they are underallocated to logistics. If you do some maths on the best possible allocation between office, retail, industrial and logistics, for an optimised portfolio you should have between 5 percent and 10 percent in logistics.”

“Logistics remains our top sector,” Simon Wallace, head of research, Europe, alternative and real assets, at Deutsche Asset Management, comments. “Compared to office or retail, logistics is expected to be the outperformer. If you go back three or maybe five years, there was always the perception that if you bought logistics you would do well.”

Redding agrees with the characteristics that continue to attract investors to logistics: the high income return, the relatively quick development periods, the long leases, relatively strong covenants. “They have all been around for quite a while. But the recent step change is the rise in demand caused by the explosive growth of online retail.

“There has not been a commensurate increase in supply, so what we are getting is almost ideal market conditions of robust, growing demand meeting fairly-constrained supply, and that is equalling rental growth,” Redding adds. “That rental growth in logistics is what is bringing a lot of new entrants into the sector.”

Will that growing popularity result in the bubble and crash that we have seen so often before? “We don’t see that there will be a sudden correction from current levels,” Redding says. “There is interest to invest at the current levels from a wide and diverse group of investors, so the pricing at those levels is very well supported.”

Questions and answers 

For José Pellicer, partner and head of research at Rockspring Property Investment Managers, demand for logistics is not the issue. “The demand is undisputed. The question is more who is driving the demand — investors or occupiers?” Pellicer suggests.

“Investors have this idea that the only driver of logistics demand is e-commerce. That’s not correct. The vast majority of logistics is old-fashioned trade. The key demand driver for logistics is still international trade, not just of consumption goods but also components and capital goods. And manufacturing. “Retailers are changing their supply chains to adapt to the rise of e-commerce and need facilities to handle fulfillment, urban distribution and returns. Supply adapts to demand very quickly in logistics — if there is money to be made, someone will jump in to grab that money,” Pellicer points out “Investors need to find out where demand is highest and supply most restricted. Investors can’t get enough of logistics but you have to discriminate; where there is demand and limited supply is where you will find rental growth. It is the supply question that needs to be asked.”

Year after year after year 

“No other sector can demonstrate occupier growth year-on-year over the past five years like the logistics sector,” says Ekaterina Avdonina, managing director of Delin Capital. “Every other year has been a record year for occupational take-up. Nothing like that has been seen in office or retail. The majority of institutional investors started looking at logistics because of the structural drivers rather than the economic drivers that were underpinning the growth.

“The defensive character of logistics has been known about for a long time,” Avdonina points out. “Most of the return is derived from income and for fixed-income investors buying logistics has been a great diversifier. Logistics has very little volatility, 90 percent of the return derives from income, and that makes a really good story.”

“The retail market is going through a seismic change and technology is at the forefront of that,” says Andrew Jones, CEO of UK-REIT LondonMetric Property Plc. “How we shop and interact is evolving, and logistics is a large part of the change. Every retailer has a slightly different strategy for dealing with this. Some retailers cover a country or region with one large warehouse. Others adopt a hub-and-spoke model, with the hub located strategically and the spokes placed around the major urban conurbations. And someone like Amazon will do everything, the full spectrum.”

“The last mile is very important,” says Jones. “Making very bold delivery promises is what will allow retailers to build their brand with their end-customers.”

Dmitry Kostygin, chairman of Russian e-commerce retailer Ulmart, has a different perspective. “Logistics is a never-ending story of evolution,” he explains. “There is always change and room for improvement.” Kostygin, for example, sees scope for a new type of real estate for online retail in Russia: distribution or fulfillment centres that are accessible to customers, look slightly better outside than just a shed and with some parking, a sort of warehouse club.

“Our investment team has been active in the market and is positive about logistics,” says Greg Mansell, head of research at AXA Investment Managers – Real Assets. “Logistics is popular from an investor’s point of view because demand is outstripping supply. Performance in the medium term is expected to be stronger than that of offices and retail as well. Agreed, yields have come down quite a bit, to below 6.5 percent on average across Europe. That’s down a long way from where we were four or five years ago, and the spread between logistics and offices has also come in.

“But I don’t think that investors are getting ahead of themselves,” says Mansell. “It’s more to do with the lack of supply. Investors are looking for assets and there aren’t that many out there.” Limited availability of good logistics product and high investor demand is pushing prices up.

Where could it all go wrong? “It could go wrong if there was excess supply,” says Pellicer. “If developers and investors start building like crazy, occupiers will have choices and rents could fall.”

Someone else’s problem

Nothing has changed in logistics and yet everything has changed. The sector has morphed from the once-unloved and low-tech but tolerated warehousing and distribution sector into the fancied and highly-desirable high-tech supply-chain facilitator that it is today — whether classic retail from factory or farm to shop shelf or whichever-way-you-want omnichannel retail from distribution facility to consumer.

It is arguable that logistics has gone the extra mile and usurped retail as the second commercial real estate sector after offices. No real estate owner wants voids or vacancies but in the current environment it’s likely that they would rather have an empty shed than an empty shop as it’s more likely to re-lease quickly. Depending on “location, location, location.”

Fortunately, the vexed question of how much longer retailers can continue to bear the rising costs of the rapid online deliveries and generous and penalty-free returns policies that consumers have come to expect is not one that investors in and owners of logistics facilities will have to concern themselves with too much.

3D printing? No worries 

Fears that the wider adoption of 3D printing could have adverse consequences for operators and owners of logistics facilities have been debunked by senior executives of leading developers and investors. Hamid Moghadam, CEO of Prologis, told delegates to this year’s INREV annual conference in Berlin that “the material that goes into a 3D printer has to get there somehow. I think we’re good.”

Ian Worboys, CEO of P3 Logistic Parks, the former PointPark Properties that is now owned by GIC, made the same point another way in an interview during last year’s Expo Real event in Munich: “If every household has a 3D printer,” he said, “it [and all the parts that go into it] will have to come through a warehouse. Things are not printed out of thin air. If you have a 3D printer, you will have to put in the basic materials. These materials will all have to go through a warehouse.

“At the moment, it’s all a bit science fiction and maybe in 20 years’ time you won’t be buying anything, everything will go through the 3D machine,” Worboys adds. “But you will still need the basics for the machine to make it work. There will be a pretty big supply chain around that.”

Richard Fleming

r.fleming@irei.com is editor of Institutional Real Estate Europe. He is based in Kimberley, United Kingdom.

For further information please contact:

Delin Capital Asset Management
Ekaterina Avdonina
+44 (0)207 487 1220
investments@dc-am.co.uk

FTI Consulting on behalf of Delin Capital Asset Management
Dido Laurimore / Richard Gotla
+44 (0)20 3727 1000
dido.laurimore@fticonsulting.com

 


Keep the industrial faith - it will pay off

Industrial  and logistics real estate is undergoing a transformational renaissance. Warehouses now form the spine for a modern supply chain.

Click below to read the full press release

 

 


Onward and upward

Logistics real estate has become a plum target for investors as e-commerce and automation transform the business landscape in urban areas across Europe. Paul Hamblin takes the temperature.

Click below to read the full press release

 


Third-party logistics providers: the space race

Third-party logistics providers: the space race – Property Week

The changing requirements of retailers and their 3PL providers, driven in part by thgrowth in ecommerce, has made developing speculatively an even riskier business than it might otherwise have been. “Everyone tries to build a unit that meets all requirements , but the nature of demand is much broader and more complicated than generic storage, says Ekaterina Avdonina, chief executive at Delin Capital.

About 50% of the demand at the moment is retail-and ecommercedriven. That is a very specific, time-critical demand, which demands a different type of facility.”

Read the full article here on Property Week


Many unhappy returns

MIPIM – Preview magazine
Ekaterina comments on the rise of e-commerce and the phenomenon of merchandise returns.

“Typically for online fashion retailers, every third package is returned, which obviously creates a massive cost, not only for transportation but for processing”

Read the full pdf article here


2017 The Challenges Ahead - Ekaterina responds to Property Investor Europe's questions.

Q1 – HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE THE REAL ESTATE YEAR 2016?

This year will be remembered as a year of political shock waves. First Brexit and then the election of Trump to the White House proved that political unpredictability is now at the core of the financial system, with both events wiping billions of dollars from markets, albeit temporarily. Whilst the overall market conditions in the real estate arena have remained largely unchanged, the uncertainty around the political futures of the UK, the US and the rest of the Eurozone is now dominating both the political and economic agendas of real estate investors.

Q2 – IN 2017, WHERE DO YOU SEE MOST VALUE AND WHAT WILL BE THE BEST STRATEGY?

Core income-driven strategies and value-add strategies will dominate the focus of real estate investors. Real estate returns will remain an attractive diversifier to equities and bonds. Repricing of bond markets / fixed income products and increasing inflation may lead to a decreasing allocation towards real estate assets, which in turn may have a negative impact on core pricing, which we consider to be a primary risk.

Q3 – WHAT WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGES NEXT YEAR?

DCAM is a real estate investor, manager and developer of logistics assets, and we focus on sustainable locations which appeal to a majority of occupiers, with a particular focus on e-commerce players. Due to the unprecedented growth of logistics occupier demand, we consider the availability of land to be our key challenge for next year.

Q4 – WHAT PRIVATE MILESTONE WAS MEMORABLE FOR YOU IN 2016?

After heading the investment team at DCAM for  a number of years, I took over the management of the business with a change of direction in mind.

Published in Property Investor Europe | Edition 430 | December 2016 / January 2017 | www.pie-mag.com


Delin reports 100,000m2 of letting activity across European logistics portfolio

Cormac Ruairi, Property EU

Delin Capital Asset Management (DCAM) has secured almost 100,000 m2 of reletting agreements across its European logistics portfolio in four separate deals in the last few months.

When combined, the new letting activity delivers a total annualised income of €6 mln representing a 2.6% uplift on the previous rent and has extended the portfolio weighed average unexpired lease term (WAULT) by over 12 months.

‘We have had a busy year to date in terms of asset management, working with both existing tenants and new ones, in the case of aerosol specialist Airopack. This has led to us lengthening the portfolio lease length and improving the income, underpinning the overall quality of our European distribution portfolio and delivering on our business plans,’ said Ekaterina Avdonina, managing director of logistics investor-developer DCAM.

At Waalwijk in the southern Netherlands, DCAM agreed a new 12-year lease with Airopack at the 17,340 m2 distribution facility. The new lease follows the recent bankruptcy and administration of the previous tenant.

At Beiraweg 2-8 Amsterdam Port, DCAM agreed a lease renewal on its 40,000 m2 logistics property with the construction material group Fetim, thereby maintaining a 100% occupancy in their Amsterdam portfolio. In the Dutch city of Eindhoven, DCAM secured a lease renewal with existing tenant Philips Lighting in the 19,900 m2 facility, extending the lease to mid-2020.

Finally, at DCAM’s 20,600 m2 Agecroft Commerce Park facility in Manchester, DCAM agreed a regear with Bunzl Retail and Healthcare Supplies, extending the lease to 2027.


Gerwin Vos moves from DTZ over to Delin Capital

Delin Capital Asset Management (DCAM) Gerwin Vos appointed as commercial director. Vos was until recently Director of Logistics at broker DTZ Zadelhoff. His appointment coincides with the opening of a new office in Rotterdam DCAM.

Gerwin Vos gets DTZ over to Delin Capital
“Logistics real estate man” Gerwin Vos get to 13
years DTZ over to the British
Delin Capital Asset Management.

DCAM is an asset management company based in London that focuses mainly on European logistics real estate. Fox was thirteen working for DTZ, where he served as Director of Logistics at the head of a team of six logistics real estate experts.

New investments in logistics real estate

With the new office in Rotterdam and the existing London office Federline has expanded its European capacity up to ten real estate professionals. With Fox says DCAM to look for investments in new and existing logistics real estate in logistical hubs.

Major tenants: G-Star and NedCargo

DCAM has expanded its portfolio since 2012 in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom and is now a major provider of distribution centers including Amsterdam (Western Harbour) of approximately 100,000 square meters of logistics space campus .Major tenants of DC’s of DCAM in the Netherlands G-Star with 35,000 square meters in Amsterdam’s western port and the DC of NedCargo (formerly Van Uden Logistics)along the A12 in Waddinxveen.

New construction on Borchwerf II

Also, the asset management company property portfolio include in Tilburg (Katsbogten) and Eindhoven ( Philips and Rhenus Son , ed.). “Logistics real estate agent ‘Fox have announced that there is a big ambition to grow, including through new development. So DCAM does include currently on logistics business park Borchwerf II in Roosendaal, a new distribution center in preparation for getting a size of 35,000 square meters. The construction of this DC start in the third quarter of this year and will be in the first quarter of 2017.First published by Bas Dijkhuizen on 7 Jul 2016

This has been automatically translated  to English from Dutch.

First published by Bas Dijkhuizen on 7 Jul 2016

Read the original published article